How much economic reality does the hottest excavat

The "excavator index" reflects how much economic reality

China's economy can no longer rely too much on the energy industry and infrastructure industry in the manufacturing process. We need new ways of economic growth. Those more innovative emerging industries are the future of China's economy

recently, a hot term - "excavator index" has emerged worldwide to reflect the vitality of infrastructure construction, mining and other fields, and then evaluate the macroeconomic situation of a country and a region. It is reported that in June 2014, the average operation time of domestic large excavators was 76.03 hours, 72.9 hours in June 2015, 88.7 hours in June 2016, and 113.35 hours in large steel enterprises in June 2017, an increase of 28% year-on-year. Some analysts pointed out that the "excavator index" reflects the recovery of China's economy

the domestic "excavator index" is rising, which can be roughly summarized into three reasons: first, the demand of energy industries such as coal is increasing; 2、 The growth rate of domestic infrastructure maintained a relatively high growth rate of about 16% - 18%; 3、 Although it is currently in the period of macro-control, the downstream real estate investment is still at a higher level than the utilization trend of lightweight, low odor and new energy in the automotive field

but it should also be noted that another part of the index embodied in the "excavator index", that is, real estate, coal, construction machinery and other fields, belong to strong cyclical industries, which are prone to fluctuations due to various factors such as policies and market environment

taking the real estate industry as an example, because the policy effect is delayed, the impact of macro-control on the upstream and downstream of real estate will continue to expand in the future. Some research institutions believe that the growth rate of real estate investment is expected to slow down in the third and fourth quarters

in 2016, the coal industry experienced three stages of price "recovery, crazy growth and cooling", and the price slowly recovered in the first half of this year. However, we should also see that the task of reducing production capacity in the coal industry is still arduous. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of coal consumption should be reduced to less than 58%, and about 800 million tons of excess and backward production capacity need to be eliminated and eliminated every year. Therefore, the coal industry has limited support for the "excavator index"

China's economy is undergoing a process of transformation from investment led to internal consumption driven. The key task currently facing is to break through the bottleneck of the traditional growth model, comprehensively adjust backward industries, and achieve real quality and efficiency improvement. The "excavator index" not only reflects the recovery of China's infrastructure, but also shows that investment in coal mines, real estate and other fields remains at a high level. We should pay attention not to repeat the mistakes of previous cyclical fluctuations

"excavator index" is a good economic prediction index, but we should not be too happy because this index is rising

in recent years, the structural adjustment of the coal industry and the implementation of the "one vote veto system" for local infrastructure and environmental protection have shown that it has gradually become a consensus from the society to the government that we should not rely too much on infrastructure to drive economic growth and avoid weight over quality

the increase in infrastructure investment and investment pointed by the "excavator index" has brought economic growth. However, China's economy cannot rely too much on the energy industry and infrastructure industry. We need new ways of economic growth. Those more innovative emerging industries are the future of China's economy